How is the calculation of oil money impacting the economy?

回答於 : 2024-07-12

參考資料

Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth of OECD Countries

mdpi.com

Global Commodity Prices report April 2024 | inflation impacts

worldbank.org

Oil and money in analyzing the impact of Oil Prices on Inflation ...

dialnet.unirioja.es

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答案

完善答案

The calculation of oil money, often referred to as the economic impact of oil prices, involves analyzing how changes in oil prices affect various macroeconomic variables such as inflation, economic growth, and public sector revenues. Here are the primary ways this impact is assessed:

### 1. **Impact on Inflation**

Oil prices have a direct influence on inflation. When oil prices increase, the cost of transportation and production for many goods also rises, leading to higher overall prices. This was noted in studies which show that fluctuations in oil prices significantly impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in oil-exporting countries[9][13]. For instance, a severe disruption in oil supply could potentially raise the global inflation rate by nearly one percentage point[2].

### 2. **Impact on Economic Growth**

The effect of oil prices on economic growth can be multifaceted. High oil prices can lead to increased costs for businesses, thereby dampening economic activity and growth. Conversely, for oil-exporting countries, higher oil prices can bolster revenues and stimulate economic growth[1][13]. For example, a study indicated that oil price fluctuations significantly impacted the GDP growth rate of oil-exporting countries[9].

### 3. **Impact on Public Sector Revenues**

Higher oil prices typically lead to increased revenues for countries that export oil. This additional revenue can be used to fund public services and infrastructure projects, potentially leading to broader economic benefits[5]. Conversely, for countries that import oil, higher prices can strain public finances and lead to budget deficits.

### 4. **Expectations and Forecasts**

Forecasts about future oil prices also play a critical role in economic planning. For instance, the World Bank has forecasted that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $84 per barrel in 2024, with potential increases if geopolitical tensions escalate[2]. Similarly, Fitch's Global Economic Outlook projects oil prices to average $75 per barrel in 2024[4].

### Summary

In summary, the calculation of oil money impacts the economy through:

- **Inflation:** Higher oil prices increase overall inflation.

- **Economic Growth:** Varied impact based on whether the country is an oil importer or exporter.

- **Public Sector Revenues:** Increased revenues for oil-exporting countries, fiscal strain for oil importers.

- **Forecasts:** Future oil price expectations influencing economic planning and policy.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers to mitigate negative impacts and capitalize on positive outcomes associated with oil price changes.